EFFECTS OF MONSOON VARIABILITY ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN ASSAM

Abstract

Agriculture in Assam is highly dependent on the monsoon, making it vulnerable to climatic variability. Monsoon variability like delayed onset, erratic rainfall, and prolonged dry or wet spells, significantly impacts agricultural production, affecting crop yields, farmer incomes, and food security. This paer intends to examine the effects of monsoon variability on Assam’s agricultural sector by analyzing historical rainfall patterns, crop yield trends, and farmer adaptation strategies. It utilizes secondary data from meteorological reports, agricultural statistics, and remote sensing to assess rainfall distribution and its correlation with agricultural productivity in different regions of Assam. Findings indicate that irregular monsoon patterns lead to water stress during critical crop growth stages, increasing the risk of crop failure, particularly for rice, which is the dominant crop in the state. Excess rainfall often results in severe flooding, causing extensive damage to farmlands, whereas deficient rainfall contributes to drought-like conditions, reducing productivity. The paper aims to highlight that districts such as Dhemaji, Lakhimpur, and Barpeta are more prone to flood-induced agricultural losses, whereas lower rainfall variability impacts regions like Karbi Anglong and parts of Barak Valley. Furthermore, small and marginal farmers face higher risks due to their limited access to irrigation, financial resources, and climate-resilient technologies. The paper suggests the need for improved water management systems, climate-resilient farming techniques, and policy interventions to mitigate monsoon-related agricultural risks. Adoption of early warning systems, diversified cropping patterns, and government support programs can enhance the resilience of Assam’s agricultural sector. Future study should focus on localized climate adaptation strategies and the role of technology in ensuring sustainable agricultural development.