SEASONAL DROUGHT FORECASTING IN NORTH KARNATAKA: A SARIMA APPROACH USING SPI FOR ENHANCED AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE

Abstract

Drought is an extended period of significantly reduced rainfall, resulting in water scarcity that negatively impacts agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. As one of the most devastating natural hazards, drought disrupts socio-economic stability, especially in arid and semi-arid regions like North Karnataka. Accurate drought forecasting is essential for proactive management and mitigation, helping communities prepare for and reduce the impacts of these dry spells. This study uses the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to forecast drought in North Karnataka's interior districts.