THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOLD, USDINR, CRUDE OIL AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN INDIA FOR THE DECADE 2011-2020

Abstract

Gold, Crude oil and exchange rates are determined by the market forces of demand and supply. In case of India, the imports of the two commodities viz. crude oil and gold are critical for the country and also a foreign currency guzzler. To identify the relationship of these during the period 2011-2020, we have used linear regression to test the hypotheses. In the testing it was observed that all the three independent variables i.e. crude oil, gold and exchange rate of USDINR have significant relationship with respect to level of foreign exchange reserves in India. The study however limits itself to recognising this relationship. The study also further revisits the fact that India’s dependence on the foreign crude oil and gold supplies leads to vulnerability of price fluctuations on the currency reserves.